Category : STATISTICAL

base rate

BASE RATE

BASE RATE FALLACY – Ignoring relevant statistical information when computing rates.  The base rate fallacy is committed when one believes statistics do not apply to them. Irrelevant non-statistical information is used to replace relevant statistical information. For instance, the admission rate…

0 Comments / 19 View / April 9, 2015

gambler

GAMBLER’S FALLACY

GAMBLER’S FALLACY – Reasoning that short-term deviations from the norm must correct themselves in the short-term. The Gambler’s Fallacy is a mistake often made while gambling. The concept seems intuitive but is mathematically incorrect. Imagine playing a game of Roulette….

0 Comments / 33 View / April 9, 2015

texas sharpshooter

TEXAS SHARPSHOOTER

TEXAS SHARPSHOOTER – Shifting the emphasis to stress similarities in data.  The Texas Sharpshooter first fires several rounds and then paints his target around the biggest cluster. In statistics this is done by developing a hypothesis after analyzing data instead…

0 Comments / 15 View / April 9, 2015

cum hoc

CUM HOC ERGO PROPTER HOC

CUM HOC ERGO PROPTER HOC – Reasoning that when two events happen at the same time, there must be a causal relationship.  This is very closely related to the Post Hoc fallacy. Being a police officer in Clarkstown, NY is a nice gig….

0 Comments / 22 View / April 9, 2015

post hoc

POST HOC ERGO PROPTER HOC

POST HOC ERGO PROPTER HOC – Reasoning that because one event occurred first it must have caused a later event.  This is one type of false causation, and is related to Cum Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc. The Post Hoc fallacy can…

1 Comment / 18 View / April 9, 2015